Wrangell’s Declining Presidential Turnout

Feb 16

Written By Ronan Rooney

For the past six presidential races, voter turnout at Wrangell’s precinct has declined. Where did all the voters go?

#1. Wrangell’s Votes For president are declining

For six straight elections, the number of votes cast for president in the Wrangell precinct has declined:

2000: 1,028 (52%). 2004: 893 (54%). 2008: 855 (53%). 2012: 798 (48%). 2016: 764 (44%). 2020: 732 (37%). 2024: 677 (34%)

In 1992, two-thirds of Wrangell’s registered voters cast a ballot for president in the Wrangell precinct. In 2024, that fraction dropped to one-third. While it might appear that one out of every three registered Wrangell voters has simply given up voting for president, the numbers don’t explain why this change is happening.

All election results are publicly available at Alaska Division of Elections Results.

#2. it’s not because of population

Voter turnout is not declining because Wrangell’s population is shrinking. In fact, there were more registered Wrangell voters in 2024 (1,968) than there were in 1992 (1,539). Wrangell’s current number of registered voters sits near its all-time high.

Wrangell’s population has only slightly declined since 1990. According to the U.S. Census, Wrangell’s population was:

1990: 2,479. 2000: 2,308. 2010: 2,369. 2020: 2,127.

Wrangell’s population dropped by only 352 from 1990 to 2020. That’s only a 14% population decline — not enough to explain where one-third of Wrangell voters went.

#3. Absentee voting can’t explain everything

Many Wrangell voters cast absentee ballots, either in-person or through the mail. These votes are tallied at the district level and do not count towards the Wrangell precinct total. This makes knowing the figure of exactly how Wrangell voted a little murky.

Absentee ballots have grown more popular in the past five elections, peaking in 2020 at 40% of all the votes cast in Wrangell’s district. But in 2024, absentee votes dropped to 19% of all votes cast in the district, the lowest percent since 2004. Absentee voting alone cannot explain where votes are going.

#3. Party registrations Have remained stable

Over the years, Wrangell’s registration by party has remained relatively stable. In the 2000 election, about 4% of Wrangell voters switched from Democratic to Republican party registration and never went back. Since 2000, Republicans have made up a little over 26% of Wrangell’s registered voters. Democrats have stayed close to 8%, and all other party registration makes up about 4%. The largest group, however, are the Nonpartisan and Undeclared voters, who consistently make up close to 60% of Wrangell’s registered voters.

#4. The biggest Change is Among Republican voters

Democratic votes for president since 2000 have remained low and stable, in the range of 198 +/- 54. But votes for Republicans in the same period have varied widely, in the range of 624 +/- 173. As the largest group of voters in Wrangell, Republican turnout has the biggest impact on overall voter turnout, and Republican votes for president in the Wrangell precinct have declined every election since 2000, with the exception of a 14-vote gain in 2020.

Since 2004, Democratic votes for president in the Wrangell precinct have slightly exceeded the number of registered Democrats in Wrangell. For Republicans, the opposite holds true. In 2000, George W. Bush received 797 votes, a margin of 309 more than the number of registered Republicans in Wrangell. But every election since then, that margin has slipped. Since 2016, the Republican turnout in the Wrangell precinct has been less than the number of registered Republicans:

2016: 512 (-23 margin). 2020: 526 (-20 margin). 2024: 451 (-95 margin).

In 2024, President Trump received 451 votes in the Wrangell precinct, fewer than his campaign in 2016 (512) or 2020 (526). This was a record-low not seen since President Gerald Ford’s 379 votes in 1976.

#5. Wrangell was once a political leader

From 1988 through 2012, Wrangell participated in seven presidential elections. Each time, Wrangell was the #1 precinct in its district for voter turnout. That changed in 2016 and 2020, when the Wrangell precinct dropped to #4 in voter turnout in its district. In 2024, the Wrangell precinct dropped further, to #5 in its district.

From 1985 to 2003, Wrangell attorney Robin Taylor held a seat in the Alaska State Legislature. From 2001 to 2015, Wrangell nurse Peggy Wilson held a seat in the Alaska State Legislature. From 1981 to 2006, former Wrangell bank manager Frank Murkowski ran for U.S. Senate and then the governor’s seat. It’s unclear if having these locally-identified candidates on the ballot may have boosted Wrangell’s voter turnout, but is likely that these candidates benefited from it.

Looking for Answers

For historians, election returns are a way to measure public opinion about candidates, parties, and the political process as a whole. These numbers do not inherently explain why the change is happening. To understand that would require more listening and conversation than statistical analysis to get to the heart of the issue.